The One Thing Every Homeowner Needs to Know About a Recession
May 19, 2022
A recession does not equal a housing crisis. That’s the one thing that every homeowner today needs to know. Everywhere you look, experts are warning we could be heading toward a recession, and if true, an economic slowdown doesn’t mean homes will lose value.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession this way:
“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production,
employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity
and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.”
To help show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, take a look at the historical data. There have been six recessions in this country over the past four decades. As the graph below shows, looking at the recessions going all the way back to the 1980s, home prices appreciated four times and depreciated only two times. So, historically, there’s proof that when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will fall or depreciate.
The first occasion on the graph when home values depreciated was in the early 1990s when home prices dropped by less than 2%. It happened again during the housing crisis in 2008 when home values declined by almost 20%. Most people vividly remember the housing crisis in 2008 and think if we were to fall into a recession that we’d repeat what happened then. But this housing market isn’t a bubble that’s about to burst. The fundamentals are very different today than they were in 2008. So, we shouldn’t assume we’re heading down the same path.
Bottom Line
We’re not in a recession in this country, but if one is coming, it doesn’t mean homes will lose value. History proves a recession doesn’t equal a housing crisis.
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Belmonte Builders was honored to receive six (6) awards on Thursday, November 13th at the 2025 Capital Region Builders & Remodelers Association’s (CRBRA) Best in Building Awards dinner. We were proud to be recognized for excellence in the following categories: Best New Construction Floor Plan 2,500+ sq. ft. (Oak Hill Primary Up)) Best Aging-in-Place Design (Lincoln Ranch) Best New Merchandised (staged) Model (18 Dahlia Drive, Lincoln) Best New Kitchen - under $75,000 (18 Dahlia Drive, Lincoln Ranch) Best New Primary Bath - under $50,000 (18 Dahlia Drive, Lincoln Ranch) Best New Twin Home or Townhome (64 Daintree Drive, Willow Primary Up) The CRBRA Best in Building Awards is the Capital Region’s premier award program recognizing creativity, ingenuity and advancement in residential building. Through the Best in Building Awards competition, CRBRA builders, remodelers and industry-related associate members enter their best projects from kitchens and baths to floor plans and home features.
Belmonte Builders' Lincoln floor plan at 18 Dahlia Drive had an outstanding showing at this year’s Saratoga Showcase of Homes, earning six awards including 1st place for in the Luxury Home Category : Winner: Best Interior Floor Plan Winner: Best Landscaping (partner - Dylan Helo, Heloscaping ) Runner Up: Exterior Architectural Design Runner Up: Kitchen (partner - Heather Lust, Curtis Lumber ) Runner Up: Primary Bath Runner Up: Interior Decorating (partner- Kaitlynn Johnson, Old Brick Furniture ) Together, these honors highlight Belmonte’s continued dedication to exceptional craftsmanship, thoughtful design, and the superior livability that defines every Belmonte home.
Belmonte Builders is proud to announce that our Willow Twin Home at 60 Daintree Drive was honored with six awards in the Classic Home category at this year’s Saratoga Showcase of Homes. The home earned top recognition for Best Exterior Architectural Design , Best Interior Decorating (partner - Denise Rappazzo, Plum & Crimson Fine Interior Design), Best Landscaping (in partnership with CPI Landscaping), and Best Workmanship , along with Runner-Up awards for Best Floor Plan and Best Kitchen (Michelle Mucciero, Builder’s Kitchens). Together, these honors celebrate the collaboration, craftsmanship, and attention to detail that define every Belmonte home. From architectural character and beautiful interiors to expert landscaping and fine finishes, 60 Daintree Drive embodies the thoughtful design and superior livability that have made Belmonte a trusted name in the Capital Region for more than 40 years.
Plans for Exciting New Amenities Unveiled
Talk about the economy is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. That’s leaving a lot of people wondering what it means for the value of their home – and their buying power. Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in the housing market during each recession, going all the way back to the 1980s. The facts may surprise you.
Think a new home means a bigger price tag? Not necessarily.
On November 14th, Belmonte Builders was honored to take home three(3) awards for our Cypress Twin Home at the 2024 Capital Region Builders & Remodelers Association’s (CRBRA) Best in Building Awards night. We were proud that our Cypress model home at 22 Daintree Drive was recognized for: Best New Twin Home or Townhome Best New Merchandised (staged) Model Best Aging in Place Design
Now that it’s September, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The overwhelming expectation is that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their upcoming meeting, driven primarily by recent signs that inflation is cooling , and the job market is slowing down . Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, said : “They’re ready to cut, just as long as we don’t get an inflation surprise between now and September, which we won’t.” But what does this mean for the housing market, and more importantly, for you as a potential homebuyer or seller? Why a Federal Funds Rate Cut Matters The Federal Funds Rate is one of the key factors that influences mortgage rates – things like the economy, geopolitical uncertainty, and more also have an impact. When the Fed cuts the Federal Funds Rate, it signals what’s happening in the broader economy, and mortgage rates tend to respond. While a single rate cut might not lead to a dramatic drop in mortgage rates, it could contribute to the gradual decline that’s already happening. As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), points out : “Once the Fed kicks off a rate-cutting cycle, we do expect that mortgage rates will move somewhat lower.” And any upcoming Federal Funds Rate cut likely won’t be a one-time event. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says : “Generally, the rate-cutting cycle is not one-and-done. Six to eight rounds of rate cuts all through 2025 look likely.” The Projected Impact on Mortgage Rates Here’s what experts in the industry project for mortgage rates through 2025. One contributing factor to this ongoing gradual decline is the anticipated cuts from the Fed. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from F annie Ma e , MBA , NAR , and Wells Fargo (see graph below):
Being a part of the Sandwich Generation comes with its challenges – but it also might come with one truly great perk. If you’re looking to buy a home, your caregiving situation can actually make it a bit easier for you to afford a home. And building a new home makes it easier to personalize the floor plan to fit your unique needs
Retirement is a time for relaxation, adventure, and enjoying the things you love. As you imagine this exciting new chapter in your life, it's important to think about whether your current home still fits your needs. If it's too big, too costly, or just not convenient anymore, downsizing might help you make the most of your retirement years. To find out if a smaller, more manageable home might be the perfect fit for your new lifestyle, ask yourself these questions: Do the original reasons I bought my current house still stand, or have my needs changed since then? Do I really need and want the space I have right now, or could somewhere smaller be a better fit? What are my housing expenses right now, and how much do I want to try to save by downsizing? If you answered yes to any of these, consider the benefits that come with downsizing.
